A new study of 1,000 leaders in the technology sector has concluded that the continued growth of artificial intelligence (AI) creates fear rather than hope.
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Fifty years ago, on a Sunday, computer engineer Douglas Engelbart gave a live demonstration in San Francisco that changed the computer industry and, indirectly, the world. In the conference hall, hundreds of interested people watched as he showed them how he managed formatted documents with a device he called a "mouse," and how people could work online on shared documents from different locations.
Steven Levy, a historian known for calling it "the mother of all demos," said, "As windows opened and closed and content rearranged, viewers gazed at the horizon created by virtual reality. Engelbart introduced the device to them with a lapel microphone and a calm voice. This 1968 demo broadened the horizon of a vast industry based on personal computers using live interfaces—in other words, the devices we use today."
Engelbart was a visionary who believed that the most effective way to solve problems was to enhance human capabilities and create collective intelligence. For him, computers were "guidelines for the mind," or tools for improving human abilities, and this development has formed the basis of the optimistic outlook of the technology industry from the very beginning.
This dream began to fade as we learned how data hunters simultaneously spoil us for our development and provide us with what we need. The claim we're discussing can also vary depending on the company and application. For example, spreadsheets, word processing, computer-aided design (CAD), and project planning tools are undeniable blessings. Google search can be seen as a memory prosthesis for humanity or a justification for never lacking any information. However, it's unclear what kind of cognitive development Instagram or Facebook provide, if any at all. This, of course, includes Twitter as well.
However, there is a new technological formation called artificial intelligence, which is constantly being promoted for its advancement. AI has been presented by its proponents as a technology that can truly enhance human capabilities, and this view has been validated over time. Even in its current state, it is quite impressive in terms of machine learning and development. For example, it is thought that image scanning software could quickly scan tens of thousands of retinal scans and reliably select points that an eye surgeon should pay attention to.
However, there is a major bias against machine learning leading to negative consequences and condemning the world to networks by relying on such a powerful but prone-to-flaws technology. The Pew Research Center recently posed this question to a panel of experts in an effort to create a rational estimate of the risks: “ By 2030, do you think the advancement of AI and related technology systems will enhance and empower human capabilities? ” The answers have been quite revealing and sobering.
While all participants understood the empowering potential of technology, the anxiety reflected in their responses was palpable. They saw widespread adoption of AI as a potential loss of human labor, as key decisions in daily life were delegated to coded “black box” systems. Additionally, they feared potential misuse in profit-driven surveillance systems. Significant risks to employment were also evident. While some anticipated the emergence of new job opportunities, others firmly believed there would be massive unemployment, a widening economic divide, and the resulting populist and social unrest.
Many welcome the growth potential of artificial intelligence, but others fear that our increasing reliance on technology will negatively impact our capacity to think, act independently, or interact effectively with others. And some predict that technology will develop the ability to influence democratic processes, as exemplified by 'deep fake' videos*.
The first thing to say about this poll is that it's not a statistically representative public opinion poll of the Mori/YouGov type. All in all, it's a pretty serious attempt to discuss the ideas of highly informed thinkers, many of whom are identified with the tech industry, its core technologies, and its companies. At the very least, their reflections offer perspective on a positive shift from a tech industry that sees morality as occupational therapy for unemployed philosophers and other "losers," to a "supernatural AI" viewpoint. But most importantly, this discussion made me wonder what Engelbart would do about it. Engelbart stated, "Someone once told me I was just a dreamer. At the time, that offended me. The 'just' part struck me. Being a true dreamer isn't easy, and it gets even harder when you start believing in your own dreams." Especially if those dreams turn into nightmares…
*'Deep fake' technology is a technique that can replace the faces of people in any video with the faces of others. The text mentions that it could be used for smear campaigns for political purposes.
Translator: Ayşe Ege Palaz Editor: Ögetay Kayalı
References 1. The Guardian, “If tech experts worry about artificial intelligence, shouldn't you? “ < https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/16/tech-experts-worried-about-artificial-intelligence-pew-research-center >
Originally published on Medium on April 24, 2023. English translation of “Umut Yerine Korku”.